ADF

ADF STAFF Iran is working to take advantage of the chaos caused by Sudan’s civil war to gain a foothold on the Red Sea. Establishing a presence in Sudan would, in essence, enable Iran to box in its regional opponents, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, and threaten shipping through the Suez Canal, according to experts. “It [Iran] considers it a starting point towards achieving long term strategic gains, in terms of expansion in Africa, control of the Red Sea and wider regional influence,” analyst Abdal Monim Himmat wrote recently for The Arab Weekly. Toward that end, Iran has spent more…

ADF STAFF On a continent where extremist violence has increased 60% since 2021, little outside attention has been paid to the historically peaceful country of Malawi. But the dangers posed by terrorist groups seeking to expand into Malawi are real, according to independent Africa security analyst Scott Morgan. “The proper assessment should be that the threat to Malawi is an external threat rather than an internal threat,” he wrote in a September 19 brief on the website Militant Wire. “The porosity of borders, the geography, and a limitation of capabilities coupled with scant foreign support makes Malawi a highly vulnerable…

ADF STAFF Disinformation campaigns seeking to manipulate African information systems have increased nearly fourfold since 2022. That is according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), which linked disinformation campaigns to increased violence, support for coups, expanded anti-Western rhetoric and the spread of confusion about health care. These campaigns also work to erode confidence in traditional media sources. Nearly 60% of disinformation campaigns in Africa are linked to countries outside the continent. The efforts, aided by emerging technology, are mostly driven by Russia, although China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also push false narratives as they seek…

ADF STAFF For more than a decade, improvised explosive devices have been the deadliest weapons terrorists in Somalia have deployed against both Soldiers and civilians. Since 2014, IEDs planted by al-Shabaab have killed or injured more than 14,000 people, 61% of them civilians, according to Action on Armed Violence. Based in the United Kingdom, the group tracks armed violence against civilians around the world. Over the last year alone, IEDs have killed or injured 1,500 Somalis, most of them civilians. Al-Shabaab bombed a café in Mogadishu in July and a tea shop in central Somalia in August. On September 27,…

ADF STAFF The fifth filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has raised more than the level of the hydropower dam’s sprawling reservoir: It has also raised tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt over control of the Nile River. The most recent filling, which began in July, provoked an outcry from Egyptian officials, who insist that the dam is illegal and poses an existential threat to their country. Egypt gets more than 90% of its freshwater from the Nile. Egyptian authorities say colonial-era treaties from 1929 and 1959 guarantee Egypt and Sudan a specific allotment of Nile river water. They see…

ADF STAFF The number of violent events involving extremist groups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has nearly doubled since 2021. That is according to a Reuters review of data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data crisis monitoring group, which recorded 224 violent events a month on average since January, up from 128 in 2021. The Institute for Economics and Peace reported that Burkina Faso topped its Global Terrorism Index for the first time this year, with fatalities rising 68% to 1,907 — a quarter of all terrorism-linked deaths worldwide. The military junta in Burkina Faso — and…

ADF STAFF In an effort to recruit new fighters the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is invoking Faza’a, an ancient, pre-Islamic Sudanese tradition. Faza’a allows tribes to call on their members and allies for support against attacks by other tribes or to take revenge for killings. The RSF has exploited Faza’a to recruit teenagers and children to fight on the front lines much as it did 20 years ago in Darfur when it was known as the Janjaweed. Experts say such recruitment can have life-changing consequences for the young victims. “There are psychological and social ramifications on child recruits,” Dr.…

ADF STAFF A string of suicide bombings in northern Nigeria might indicate that extremists are feeling pressure from successful military campaigns, according to observers. The recent bombings in Gwoza, Borno State, were the first suicide attacks in Nigeria in four years. More than 30 people died, and 100 others were injured. The attacks happened after government forces reclaimed territories formerly occupied by the insurgents, particularly in the northeast. “The recent resurgence of suicide bombings in Gwoza, Borno State has once again brought to the forefront the ongoing threat posed by terrorism and extremism in Northern Nigeria,” Alhaji Suleiman Abdul-Azeez, spokesman…

ADF STAFF Ismai’l remembers the day Boko Haram changed his life. Sitting in the shade outside his displaced family’s makeshift shelter in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, he said he turned to drugs to forget. “I began using drugs after Boko Haram assassinated my two brothers in my presence,” Ismai’l, a pseudonym, told African Arguments. “When I take drugs, nothing matters to me anymore. When anxiety arises, drugs alleviate it.” Ismai’l’s situation is hardly unique in Maiduguri, the heartland of Boko Haram’s 15-year-old insurgency in northeast Nigeria. He and other drug users are known as “Marlians,” after British-Nigerian singer…

ADF STAFF Although Somalia is known as home to the extremist group al-Shabaab, another rival terrorist organization is making a name for itself in the Horn of Africa nation: the Islamic State Somalia, or ISSOM. The group is much smaller than al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabaab, but from its base in Puntland’s Bari region, it has come to be known as the East African headquarters of the Islamic State group and a major player in IS financing across the globe. “In Puntland, it generates funds by extorting businesses in the seaport city of Bosasso, as well as by helping export small quantities…