For almost nine months, Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces group has operated its own government in the west — a government that has been ignored by international authorities yet one that risks making Sudan’s crisis even worse, according to observers.
“Parallel governments, as seen worldwide, often undermine the peace efforts, exacerbate crises, and result in a fragile, weakened state,” Sudanese analyst Gehad Ahmed wrote for Democracy in Africa. “For Sudan, this moves risks prolonging the war rather than ending it.”
The RSF’s system, dubbed the “Government of Peace and Unity,” is led by RSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. Hemedti is the former ally who is now a rival of Sudan’s de facto president, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).
With each side backed by outside forces — Turkey backs the SAF, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) supports the RSF — the war appears to have reached a stalemate. The country effectively is divided nearly in half between the two forces.
The October fall of el-Fasher and North Darfur consolidated the RSF’s control over western Sudan’s entire Darfur region. The RSF recently extended its control to Sudan’s northwest triangle with Libya and Egypt. The region straddles a key transport corridor from southern Libya’s al-Kufra region, providing the RSF with unfettered access to outside support.
From his base in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, Hemedti has declared that his parallel government rules the sections of Sudan it controls. The government in Khartoum has dismissed Hemedti’s claim as a “phantom government” that lacks the capacity to administer any territory.
“I don’t think there is any rational government that can provide any sort of recognition to this so-called parallel government in Nyala,” Sudanese Foreign Minister Omar Mohamed Ahmed Siddig told Turkey’s TRT Afrika.
The RSF’s attacks on civilians, which include reports of rape and executions, have made the paramilitary’s position as a competent government untenable while also making it harder to reach a solution to the conflict, Siddig added.
“History shows us that forming a parallel government fuels conflict, worsens humanitarian crisis, and ultimately led to a fragile or failed state,” Ahmed wrote for Democracy in Africa.
She cited Angola, Libya and Somalia as examples of countries where rebel groups’ decision to establish parallel governments exacerbated divisions to the detriment of the country. In Angola, the division lasted 27 years. In Libya and Somalia, the divisions continue, despite efforts to knit the countries back together.
In Somalia’s case, al-Shabaab has tried to establish a parallel government in regions outside the government’s control. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is following a similar model in parts of Burkina Faso and Mali.
Despite its lack of legitimacy, the RSF’s self-declared parallel government receives support from traffickers, transnational organized crime and other illicit activities, according to analyst Ruben de Koning with the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC).
GI-TOC’s research shows that the RSF receives support from allies in the UAE, along with Libyan Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and Russia’s Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) operating in the Central African Republic. The RSF also smuggles gold through South Sudan to markets in the UAE.
Analyst Amgad Fareid Eltayeb of the Sudanese think tank Fikra for Studies and Development sees Hemedti’s attempt at creating a parallel government as less about administering territory than about securing himself a place at any future negotiations regarding Sudan.
“By announcing a government structure, the RSF is attempting to force itself into international discussions not as a militia to be disarmed, but as a political stakeholder,” Eltayeb told the German news service Deutsche Welle. “Behind this lies a carefully timed and deeply political maneuver with far-reaching consequences for the narrative battle over legitimacy, governance and international engagement in Sudan’s catastrophic war.”