ADF STAFF
Nigeria has a new president facing old problems.
Insecurity has long been atop the list of concerns for Nigerians, who have lived under the specter of increasing violence from extremist groups, bandits, intercommunal fighting and other threats. As the situation has deteriorated, citizens have demanded a return to peace, safety and a more effective security sector.
In a recent survey, Afrobarometer found that more than three-quarters of Nigerian respondents (77%) called the country “somewhat unsafe” or “very unsafe.”
“People’s concern about crime and insecurity continues to rise, as a growing number rank it as the most important problem their government should address,” the independent research network stated.
Matthew Page, an associate fellow in the Chatham House think tank’s Africa Program, said the Nigerian armed forces are capable but spread thin, performing too many internal security tasks that should be the responsibility of the police.
“Nigeria’s security sector has enormous potential to tackle the country’s many security challenges,” he said during a recent expert panel hosted by the Brookings Institution. “But it has really been caught in cycles of corruption and gross human-rights violations that undermine its capacity to secure Nigeria.”
According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), there were an estimated 3,900 deaths from violence targeting civilians in 2022.
“Nigeria remained one of the most violent countries in Africa last year,” Andrea Carboni, head of analysis for ACLED, wrote in February. “Unable to prevent a nationwide escalation of violence, the government has often resorted to the use of force to defeat insurgents and stop the violence.
“Yet, the proliferation of self-defense militias, militarization of local communities, and widespread human rights abuses at the hands of the security forces have contributed to alienate local populations, making them vulnerable to recruitment into militant or criminal organizations and nurturing armed mobilization along religious and ethnic lines.”
Page also was among several experts gathered by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies for a June 5 article discussing how Nigeria, under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, can address its multidimensional security issues.
They urged government and military leaders to “surge security forces in identified hotspots while prioritizing civilian harm reduction, improving accountability of the security sector and rebuilding trust,” the center wrote.
Security sector reform should be a major priority, they said.
Page said change will require “sustained, high-level political will and a president capable of planning and seeing through a program of security sector reform designed to overcome resistance from the security sector.”
Retired Army Maj. Gen. Shehu Yusuf agreed, but warned that “roadblocks to reform will arise from those benefiting from the current arrangement.”
Page also said the country must do a better job of aligning security sector resources with national priorities.
He suggested “upping legislative oversight, restoring normal procurement practices, right-sizing force structure and senior officer corps, and reducing interagency competition and resource wastage by consolidating security agencies.”
Dr. Murtala Rufa’i, who teaches peace and conflict at Usmanu Danfodiyo University in Sokoto, Nigeria, called for emphasizing troops on the ground rather than airstrikes that, he said, can scatter cattle herds and anger agrarian communities.
He cautioned that it is difficult to target bandits with air strikes. “Bandits use rural villages as human shields, meaning it is difficult to isolate them as targets.”
Others pushed for the new administration to increase focus on the underlying drivers of insecurity.
Idayat Hassan, director of the Lagos-based Centre for Democracy and Development, advised “a shift in mindset from symptom to cause and an immediate investment in peacebuilding initiatives along [ethnic and religious] fault lines.
“Peacebuilding interventions are urgently needed in most if not all geopolitical zones to improve community cohesion in conflict-affected areas … and to restore a degree of trust between communities.”