Mali’s military junta has failed to stem the momentum of the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) terror group, and analysts say the group is likely to continue pressing westward and southward imperiling more countries.
In late October, the al-Qaida-affiliated terrorist group recorded its first attack in Nigeria, where it claimed to kill a Nigerian Soldier in Kwara State. On December 6 and 9, JNIM attacked two fuel convoys on the Bougouni axis, a main supply corridor linking Bamako to Côte d’Ivoire.
According to Bakary Sambe, president of the Timbuktu Institute think tank, JNIM has flourished due to Malian counterterrorism failures, including hiring Russian mercenaries to work alongside state security forces. In an interview on the institute’s website, he was asked how Senegal and other West African nations can avoid being exposed to JNIM’s expanding operations.
“Just as we need to strengthen border security and combat territorial marginalization, we must also prevent the effects of non-inclusive governance from creating social boundaries on the outskirts of our urban areas, thereby exacerbating socio-economic vulnerabilities,” Sambe said. “This is the whole point of the human security approach, which makes the issues as important in Sinthiou Djaliguel [a Senegalese fishing village] as they are in Yeumbeul [a town near Dakar, Senegal’s national capital].”
Sambe identified lessons that West African authorities must learn about the history of jihadist movements in the Sahel and JNIM’s recruitment, radicalization and taxation practices in areas it controls. First, he said, outsourcing security to foreign powers is ineffective in the long term. Mali turned to Russian mercenaries — first the Wagner Group, now Africa Corps — after expelling French troops. Malian and Russian forces are accused of committing atrocities against civilians, and tensions are increasing between the forces.
Investigative organization The Sentry wrote in August 2025 that Malian Army personnel deeply resent the Russians, claiming the mercenaries disrespected their command and control. Malians also blamed the Russians for security lapses and operational mistakes that resulted in personnel and equipment losses.
“A second lesson is that the abandonment and marginalization of the peripheries by the central state always creates a vacuum exploited by jihadists or other criminal actors to establish themselves through ‘soft tactics’ — local recruitment, presentation as an alternative to a state that fails to provide basic services (security, justice),” Sambe said.
In late August 2025, JNIM captured Farabougou, near the Wagadou Forest in Mali’s south-central Ségou region, which borders Senegal. The group had gained control of a military base in Farabougou about a week earlier. Residents eventually returned under harsh conditions, including a strict dress code for women, payment of taxes, and bans on secular music and alcohol.
Sambe called on Senegal to implement “preventive reinforcement” of its border areas with Mali. Senegalese President Bassirou Faye has said this can be achieved with investment in the Emergency Program for the Modernization of Border Axes and Territories, commonly known as the Puma program. Among other things, the program has established security infrastructure, electrified 97 border localities and opened 284 villages.
Senegal “should further integrate social intelligence, politically responsible preventive initiatives, and cooperation with Bamako on economic corridors and beyond, while mitigating the risks of becoming trapped in a fight against terrorism that sometimes conceals complex inter-community tensions,” Sambe said.
He argued that West African militaries must accept that a war with JNIM will be unconventional and asymmetrical. Countering the group will require social intelligence “adapted to the nature of the threat” and a “proactive prevention strategy that breaks with the naivete of a ‘naturally’ resilient Senegal in order to project itself into a continuous future that does not neglect any aspect of a multidimensional jihadist phenomenon.”