As the Sahel’s three junta-led governments increasingly turn inward, their absence from regional organizations is hampering counterterrorism efforts across West Africa, according to analysts.
Struggling to contain insurgencies within and across their borders, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in January officially exited the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), one mechanism through which the region pursued a cooperative approach to fighting terrorism.
That same month, Niger announced it was pausing its cooperation with the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) that fights Boko Haram and its offshoot, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the Lake Chad Basin.
Both decisions came after the Sahelian nations withdrew from the G5 Sahel counterterrorism group.
In place of those broader regional organizations, the nations formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to pool their own resources to fight insurgents operating across all three countries.
Despite those actions, terrorism has increased across the region, with a particular rise in the Liptako-Gourma region where the three countries meet. By some estimates, insurgents control 80% of Burkina Faso’s territory. All three countries now rank among the most terror-prone countries in the world, with Burkina Faso ranked at the top of the Global Terrorism Index.
Writing recently in Qiraat Africa, analyst Ahmadulbadawy AbdulRaheem sees the decision to abandon broader regional bodies as a mistake.
“Preventing and mitigating violence in the region requires a joint effort, with much of the conflict occurring in border regions, where state lines are unclear, and the influence of central governance is weak,” AbdulRaheem wrote. “Given their limited financial capacities, it is unlikely that they [Sahelian nations] will be able to carry out the financially intensive war on terrorism on their own.”
The Sahelian nations’ decision to withdraw from regional counterterrorism efforts only benefits the terrorists, Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu told a recent gathering of leaders in Yobe State. Yobe State borders southeastern Niger and is among the Nigerian states that regularly feel the brunt of terrorism.
Tinubu told the summit that terrorists are best fought through the collective strength of regional military cooperation. He decried “falsehoods” that are undermining that cooperation by creating mistrust.
Relations between Niger and Nigeria have degraded since Niger’s 2023 coup, with Nigerien authorities accusing their southern neighbor of interfering in their internal affairs. The tension has undermined cooperation in the MNJTF, which also includes Benin, Cameroon and Chad.
Since turning its attention to terrorism in 2015, the MNJTF has successfully degraded Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Lake Chad region. However, internal disputes and funding problems have begun to hamper that progress.
“The MNJTF has withstood Boko Haram’s attacks across the region but is unlikely to survive a rift between the countries that contribute its troops and resources,” analysts Remadji Hoinathy and Raoul Sumo Tayo wrote recently for the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
The overall loss of counterterrorism cooperation from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has put more of the burden on the Nigerian military, according to Air Marshal Hassan Abubakar, chief of the Air Staff.
“As a result, the burden on the Armed Forces of Nigeria to support the MNJTF will increase, demanding a more robust, agile and adaptive response from the Nigerian Air Force (NAF),” Abubakar told a recent meeting of the Branch Chiefs, Air Officers Commanding and Commanders in Abuja.
“Strengthening operational readiness, enhancing interagency coordination and leveraging advanced air power will be critical in mitigating these evolving threats as we progress through 2025,” Abubakar added.
That may not be enough, however, according to Hoinathy and Tayo.
“The Lake Chad Basin jihadist threat is both transnational and inter-regional and cannot be overcome by national approaches alone,” they wrote for ISS. “To be effective, responses must match the threat.”