Conflict in Amhara Region Threatens to Ignite Another Ethiopian War

ADF STAFF

Gun battles in late October shattered the typical tranquility of Debark town, nestled in the foothills of the Semien mountains in Ethiopia’s Amhara region.

Months of intense fighting in Ethiopia’s second-largest region have dislodged any sense of peace in the war-torn country, as the federal government struggles with what potentially could be another civil war.

While the Pretoria Agreement was intended to end Ethiopia’s conflict in the Tigray region in November 2022, it left unresolved many issues such as decades-old territorial disputes between Amhara and Tigrayan people.

“The peace deal two years ago was supposed to ensure that Ethiopia’s warring parties could mend such rifts through further negotiations rather than violence. But no such talks have materialized,” The Economist magazine wrote in an October 27 article. “For now, it is no more than a ceasefire — and one that could easily collapse.”

After fighting alongside federal forces against the Tigrayans, ethnic Amhara militias known as Fano were told in April 2023 to disarm and integrate with the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). Rather than comply, Fano unleashed an insurgency by seizing towns and roadways.

In late September 2024, federal forces launched an offensive against Fano, ominously declaring it the “final operation.” The ENDF attacked the militias and briefly entered several towns, including Gondar and Metema. Fighting has escalated since the end of the rainy season, as drier conditions have allowed troops to move more easily, and clearer skies make way for military drones.

There were 43 drone attacks and airstrikes in 22 districts across the Amhara region between September 25 and October 24, killing 196 including civilians and injuring 77, according to the Amhara Association of America.

The ENDF reportedly has poured tens of thousands of troops into the Amhara region.

“Over the past two weeks, there have been numerous reinforcements (of the federal army) and many arrests of officials suspected of collusion with the Fano,” a security source told Agence France-Presse on the condition of anonymity in early October.

While the ENDF has wrestled back control of several towns, it continues to face a resilient foe that enjoys popular support from the Amhara. Fano is less an organized group than it is a fragmented coalition of autonomous militias. The ENDF’s gains have forced Fano fighters to retreat into the mountains and wage guerilla warfare.

“Fano’s decentralized structure makes it hard for it to leverage its strength into political power,” analyst Liam Carr concluded in a September intelligence assessment for the Critical Threats Project. “A strengthened Fano insurgency increases the risk of ethnic conflict with neighboring regions in Ethiopia, such as Tigray and Oromia, and would affect transnational issues involving Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan that could further destabilize Ethiopia or other areas in the Horn of Africa.”

A contingent of the ENDF on October 26 met with members of the Debark community to discuss a path to sustainable peace. The military’s representative, however, blamed Fano for the violence.

“The extremist group that is full of hatred and blind thinking, has brought the people into conflict, robbed their own people and put government development institutions in danger,” Maj. Gen. Amare Gebru, head of Debark command post, said during the gathering, according to the ENDF.

Peace talks are unlikely and neither side appears capable of a military victory, according to Adem Abebe, senior advisor on peacebuilding for the Sweden-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

“The Fano are not ready for peace negotiations,” he told The Africa Report for an October 10 article. “The government may try and talk to some leaders here and there, but until there is some coordination among Fano, it is going to be very difficult for any individual Fano leader to commit to a peace process publicly.

“I don’t think much will change on the battlefield, but the situation will continue bringing terrible suffering for the people.”