Somalia’s Tubsan Center Has ‘Whole-of-Society’ Counterterror Approach

ADF STAFF

In more than 15 years of fighting al-Shabaab, Somali leaders have discovered they cannot defeat the terror group by military means alone.

Shortly after his election as president in 2022, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud revealed his plan for “total war” against the terrorists: a military offensive coordinated with the multinational African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), a simultaneous attack on al-Shabaab’s vast financial network, and a plan to counter the group’s extremist ideology.

“The previous policies were militaristic policies … attacking, destroying,” Mohamud said in a speech broadcast nationally in July 2022. “But [the] al-Shabaab problem is more than military.”

He acknowledged that “there are strong arguments” for negotiating with the insurgency, which has proven to be extremely resilient and well-funded, having controlled large swaths of territory in central and south Somalia.

“But we are not right now in a position to negotiate with al-Shabaab,” the president said. “We will, at the right time. We will negotiate with them.”

Toward those non-kinetic goals, the government of Somalia established the Tubsan National Center for Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism in June 2023 “to ensure the well-balanced implementation of the national strategy for countering violent extremism and terrorism.”

The center’s mission is to coordinate between federal and state governments, multiple security agencies, civil society organizations and other partners.

About 30 employees at the center engage with religious leaders, youth groups, women’s groups, traditional elders and the private sector. Its strategic communications aim is to counter extremist disinformation and propaganda across all media platforms and through community forums.

The center faces many challenges in its early stages of development, including threats against its staff from al-Shabaab. But researcher Isel Ras said Tubsan’s greatest task is addressing the root issues that sustain terrorism.

“Strategies that go beyond security measures … should focus on rehabilitation, reintegration and prevention of violent extremism,” she wrote in a March 25 analysis for the Institute for Security Studies, a South Africa-based think tank. “Somalia must deal with the challenges of recruitment and radicalization by al-Shabaab, and the prospect that some combatants may defect.”

Tubsan Deputy Director Ibrahim Nadara has personal experience, having defected from the group as a high-ranking commander in 2016. He previously advised Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre on awareness campaigns against al-Shabaab.

Director Abdullahi Mohamed Nur has called the center a symbol of hope and resilience that seeks to unite people in rejecting violent extremist ideologies.

“We adopt a ‘whole-of-government’ and ‘whole-of-society’ approach, making our strategies inclusive and effective,” he wrote on Tubsan’s website. “We spearhead and coordinate efforts across different agencies and government levels, focusing on a soft operations approach that emphasizes dialogue and understanding rather than force. Our aim extends beyond countering current threats to preventing new ones.”

The Somali National Army and its partners have had a number of successes and setbacks in recent fighting against al-Shabaab. The Army’s latest offensive focuses on Galmudug and Hirshabelle states, where militants still control valuable agricultural land and hold civilians in their brutal grip.

In more than 207 violent incidents, insurgents killed 432 Somalis from April 20 to May 24, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a conflict observation organization.

The security landscape in Somalia is in a state of significant change, as ATMIS is entering the third phase of its planned withdrawal. The first phase saw the mission withdraw 5,000 troops and hand over 17 forward operating bases to the Army.

The second phase mandated that the mission would draw down another 4,000 troops by the end of June. It is expected to complete its withdrawal by the end of 2024.

Ras said the Tubsan Center can play a critical role in helping to evolve Somalia’s counterterrorism approach.

“Political will must remain steadfast in addressing the drivers and narratives of extremism, extending beyond urban areas to encompass the entire country,” she wrote. “To truly alleviate the drivers of violent extremism, Tubsan’s mandate will eventually need to broaden to tackle underdevelopment, socio-economic marginalization and human rights abuses by security forces.”