Terrorism Deaths Climb Sharply in 2023; Concentrated in Sahel, Somalia

ADF STAFF

Terrorism-related deaths across Africa jumped in 2023, with most of the violence in a handful of countries while the rest of the continent saw terrorism deaths decline.

Overall, terrorism-related deaths in Africa grew 20% in a year, from 19,412 in 2022 to 23,322 in 2023. The most recent count is almost twice the death toll from 2021, according to a recent analysis by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS).

At the same time, the number of terrorist attacks dropped by 5% to just under 6,560, compared to 2022. That marks the first time attacks have trended downward since 2016.

Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Somalia bore the brunt of Africa’s terrorism-related deaths in 2023. All four countries are fighting insurgencies driven by al-Qaida or Islamic State group affiliates and now account for 99% of terrorism-related deaths in Africa, according to the ACSS report.

Burkina Faso alone accounted for two-thirds of the 11,643 terrorism-related deaths in the Sahel region, a total that ACSS analysts say is likely underreported due to regional media restrictions.

The Lake Chad region recorded a smaller pocket of terrorism-related deaths, driven largely by Boko Haram. Deaths around Lake Chad have slowly declined since 2020.

Military officers overthrew civilian governments in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. In all three cases, violence and deaths have spiked since the coups, accounting for about half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2023.

“Fatalities in the Sahel represent a near threefold increase from the levels seen in 2020, when the first military coup in the region occurred — ostensibly justified on the grounds of insecurity,” ACSS analysts reported.

The Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin coalition accounts for 81% of all fatalities in the Sahel countries, according to the ACSS report.

Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo have begun to feel the pressure from violence bleeding across their northern borders as terrorism has grown in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

In Benin, for example, violent events and fatalities doubled to 150 in 2023 compared with 2022. In response, Benin has boosted its security forces in its northern provinces and closed Pendjari National Park, which borders extremist areas in southeastern Burkina Faso.

Somalia’s increased military campaign against al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabaab led to a 22% increase in fatalities and 7,643 deaths, a record. Two-thirds of violent events and more than three-quarters of deaths were related to the Somali federal government forces’ battles with al-Shabaab, according to the ACSS.

The current campaign, launched in August 2023, aimed to drive al-Shabaab from strongholds in central Somalia where the group’s repression and demand for support from locals is turning the public against it, according to a recent analysis by the Center for Preventive Action.

Elsewhere on the continent, extremists in North Africa and Mozambique have been nearly wiped out through focused counterterrorism efforts. North African terrorism is down 98% in recent years, and Mozambique’s terrorist activity has fallen by 71%, according to the ACSS. Terrorists in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province have been reduced to about 200 people hiding in the Catupa forest.

“These declines illustrate the progress that can be made against militant Islamist groups in Africa,” ACSS analysts wrote.