African COVID Cases Likely Much Higher Than Reported

ADF STAFF

In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, many questioned why Africa appeared to be spared the level of devastation suffered by other continents.

For months, the World Health Organization (WHO) described Africa as “one of the least affected regions in the world” in its weekly updates.

One popular theory among researchers and public health officials was that Africa’s COVID-19 infection and death tolls were underreported.

New evidence indicates they were right.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Africa could be as much as seven times higher than the reported data showed, and deaths could be two to three times higher, the WHO regional director for Africa recently said.

“We’re very much aware that our surveillance systems problems that we had on the continent, with access to testing supplies, for example, have led to an underestimation of the cases,” Dr. Matshidiso Moeti told a virtual news briefing on February 10.

It’s not the first time a study of Africa’s COVID-19 data has resulted in higher estimates.

Since March 2020, Africa has recorded more than 11 million cases and nearly 250,000 deaths.

On October 14, 2021, Moeti said a study by her office estimated that testing programs caught about 14% of positive cases, which meant that six of every seven infections were undetected.

Moeti based her more recent statement on a study released February 15 that was conducted by a team of scientists with WHO backing. They analyzed the continent’s available seroprevalence surveys, which use bloodwork to show the percentage of the population who have antibodies to COVID-19. It showed higher numbers of exposure to the disease than previously thought.

Other studies around the world have calculated excess deaths during the pandemic to determine how many could be attributed to COVID-19. Only three countries in Africa, however, collect the data needed to estimate excess deaths.

Testing on the continent has been an issue since the beginning of the pandemic, and experts believe most COVID-19 deaths occur at home.

More than 98 million tests have been conducted across the continent, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

Testing has gradually improved: 21 countries now follow the WHO-recommended benchmark of 10 tests per 10,000 people per week.

One year ago, only 15 African countries met that standard.

“We must not forget testing and surveillance which we know are basic tools for returning our lives to some semblance of normalcy,” Moeti said February 10, noting that the spread of the disease in Africa is driven mostly by asymptomatic people.

This, she said, necessitates an increase in community-based testing and health care response.

The WHO is leading an initiative in 15 African countries that conducts mobile antigen-based rapid testing, the use of which is rising.

The Diagnostics Consortium for COVID-19 recently secured at least 50 million rapid tests for distribution in Africa. According to data from Zimbabwe, where testing statistics have been reported consistently, the use of rapid tests increased by 88% between April and December 2021 and has surpassed the use of PCR tests.