{"id":131045,"date":"2025-10-07T13:34:17","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T17:34:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adf-magazine.com\/?p=131045"},"modified":"2025-10-07T13:34:32","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T17:34:32","slug":"les-lecons-de-lhistoire-montrent-que-les-divisions-du-soudan-pourraient-provoquer-une-guerre-prolongee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adf-magazine.com\/fr\/2025\/10\/les-lecons-de-lhistoire-montrent-que-les-divisions-du-soudan-pourraient-provoquer-une-guerre-prolongee\/","title":{"rendered":"Les le\u00e7ons de l\u2019histoire montrent que les divisions du Soudan pourraient provoquer une guerre prolong\u00e9e"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les experts d\u00e9clarent que l\u2019annonce r\u00e9cente d\u2019un gouvernement parall\u00e8le au Soudan, dirig\u00e9 par le g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Mohamed Hamdan Dogolo alias \u00ab\u00a0Hemeti\u00a0\u00bb, chef du groupement paramilitaire Forces de soutien rapide (FSR), conduira probablement \u00e0 une hausse de violence qui pourrait se traduire par une partition semblable \u00e0 celle de la Libye. Dans ce cas, la r\u00e9solution de la partition pourrait n\u00e9cessiter plusieurs ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Hemeti et ses FSR ont annonc\u00e9 un gouvernement parall\u00e8le bas\u00e9 \u00e0 Nyala, dans le Darfour du Sud, \u00e0 la fin ao\u00fbt. Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, la cr\u00e9ation du soi-disant \u00ab\u00a0gouvernement de l\u2019espoir\u00a0\u00bb a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus symbolique que substantielle, car un grand nombre d\u2019acteurs cl\u00e9s vivent hors du pays d\u00e9chir\u00e9 par la guerre et sont partis apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce, selon des rapports.<\/p>\n

Aucun autre gouvernement n\u2019a reconnu le syst\u00e8me dirig\u00e9 par les FSR, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 ignor\u00e9 par ses opposants comme \u00e9tant un \u00ab\u00a0gouvernement fant\u00f4me\u00a0\u00bb. Les experts le qualifient de d\u00e9fi direct au gouvernement internationalement reconnu dirig\u00e9 par le g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chef des Forces arm\u00e9es soudanaises (FAS), qui combat les FSR depuis 2023.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Ceci ne devrait pas \u00eatre sous-estim\u00e9, car ce qui s\u2019est pass\u00e9 il y a quelques jours est un tournant dans l\u2019histoire du Soudan\u00a0\u00bb, d\u00e9clare l\u2019analyste Elbashir Idris \u00e0 la cha\u00eene de diffusion publique turque TRT.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Idris compare la situation actuelle au referendum de 2011 qui a instaur\u00e9 la division du pays pour cr\u00e9er le Soudan du Sud. D\u2019autres craignent que le Soudan n\u2019aboutisse \u00e0 une situation semblable \u00e0 la Libye, o\u00f9 deux gouvernements se font concurrence depuis plus de dix ans pour le contr\u00f4le du pays.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    L\u2019Angola offre un autre exemple d\u2019avenir potentiel pour le Soudan divis\u00e9. La guerre civile entre les gouvernements parall\u00e8les de ce pays a dur\u00e9 27\u00a0ans, et s\u2019est finalement termin\u00e9e en 2002.<\/p>\n

    L\u2019analyste Gehad Ahmed \u00e9crit pour Democracy in Africa\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Les gouvernements parall\u00e8les, comme on le voit dans le monde entier, sapent souvent les efforts de paix, exacerbent les crises et conduisent \u00e0 un \u00e9tat fragile et affaibli. Pour le Soudan, cette action risque de prolonger la guerre plut\u00f4t que d\u2019y mettre fin.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

    Apr\u00e8s plus de deux ann\u00e9es de combat, les bellig\u00e9rants semblent avoir atteint une impasse. Malgr\u00e9 des efforts internationaux visant \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre la crise, le g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Burhan a annonc\u00e9 en d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e qu\u2019il ne n\u00e9gocierait pas avec Hemeti tant que les FSR n\u2019auront pas d\u00e9pos\u00e9 leurs armes.<\/p>\n

    Le gouvernement Burhan a re\u00e7u une aide militaire de la Turquie, notamment plusieurs drones Bayraktar TB-2. Cette assistance a aid\u00e9 les FAS \u00e0 reconqu\u00e9rir la capitale de Khartoum et d\u2019autres territoires dans la r\u00e9gion Est du Soudan. Ceci a laiss\u00e9 aux FAS le contr\u00f4le des \u00c9tats du Nord et de l\u2019Est du Soudan, tandis que les FSR et leurs alli\u00e9s contr\u00f4lent de vastes territoires dans les \u00c9tats du Sud et de l\u2019Ouest du pays. Les FSR, qui sont aid\u00e9es par les \u00c9mirats arabes unis (EAU), ont r\u00e9cemment pris le contr\u00f4le du triangle du Nord-Ouest \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re de la Libye et de l\u2019\u00c9gypte, en s\u00e9curisant une route commerciale cruciale depuis le Sud de la Libye.<\/p>\n

    Le Darfour du Nord et certaines portions de la r\u00e9gion du Kordofan continuent \u00e0 n\u2019\u00eatre pas contr\u00f4l\u00e9s par les FSR et font l\u2019objet de combats intenses. El Fasher, chef-lieu du Darfour du Nord, est assi\u00e9g\u00e9 depuis un an et entour\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui de points de contr\u00f4le des FSR et d\u2019un mur de terre de 31\u00a0km, qui emprisonne les 260.000\u00a0r\u00e9sidents de la ville et les privent des ressources de l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur. Ceux qui essaient de s\u2019enfuir sont attaqu\u00e9s \u00e0 coups de feu, et ceux qui restent sont en proie \u00e0 la famine.<\/p>\n

    Le quartier g\u00e9n\u00e9ral des FSR \u00e0 Nyala a \u00e9t\u00e9 maintes fois attaqu\u00e9 par les FAS. Plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e, des frappes de drone ont pris pour cible l\u2019a\u00e9roport de Nyala et d\u00e9truit un avion-cargo des EAU. L\u2019attaque a aussi tu\u00e9 des dizaines de combattants des FSR.<\/p>\n

    Les frappes des FAS \u00e0 Nyala pourraient rendre peu r\u00e9aliste la pr\u00e9sence d\u2019un gouvernement op\u00e9rationnel l\u00e0-bas, selon Shewit Woldemichael, analyste principal du Soudan pour l\u2019International Crisis Group.<\/p>\n

    Le ministre soudanais des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res Omar Mohamed Ahmed Siddig a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00e0 TRT qu\u2019il est improbable que le syst\u00e8me parall\u00e8le des FSR gagne un soutien populaire ou une reconnaissance internationale \u00e0 cause du grand nombre de victimes civiles qu\u2019il a caus\u00e9es parmi la population qu\u2019il contr\u00f4le.<\/p>\n

    \u00ab\u00a0Je ne pense pas qu\u2019il existe un seul gouvernement rationnel qui puisse fournir une reconnaissance quelconque \u00e0 ce soi-disant gouvernement parall\u00e8le de Nyala\u00a0\u00bb, dit-il.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Les experts d\u00e9clarent que l\u2019annonce r\u00e9cente d\u2019un gouvernement parall\u00e8le au Soudan, dirig\u00e9 par le g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Mohamed Hamdan Dogolo alias \u00ab\u00a0Hemeti\u00a0\u00bb, chef du groupement paramilitaire Forces de soutien rapide (FSR), conduira probablement \u00e0 une hausse de violence qui pourrait se traduire par une partition semblable \u00e0 celle de la Libye. Dans ce cas, la r\u00e9solution de<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":131041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[331],"tags":[1295,1182,1181],"class_list":{"0":"post-131045","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-dernieres-nouvelles","8":"tag-civil-war-fr","9":"tag-coups-fr","10":"tag-sudan-fr"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLes le\u00e7ons de l\u2019histoire montrent que les divisions du Soudan pourraient provoquer une guerre prolong\u00e9e - Africa Defense Forum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/adf-magazine.com\/ar\/?p=131047\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les le\u00e7ons de l\u2019histoire montrent que les divisions du Soudan pourraient provoquer une guerre prolong\u00e9e - Africa Defense Forum\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les experts d\u00e9clarent que l\u2019annonce r\u00e9cente d\u2019un gouvernement parall\u00e8le au Soudan, dirig\u00e9 par le g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Mohamed Hamdan Dogolo alias \u00ab\u00a0Hemeti\u00a0\u00bb, chef du groupement paramilitaire Forces de soutien rapide (FSR), conduira probablement \u00e0 une hausse de violence qui pourrait se traduire par une partition semblable \u00e0 celle de la Libye. 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